Reflections of a recession newbie

The last time the world experienced a major recession in 2008, I was in 8th grade, not even old enough to understand if the recession was impacting my immediate family. Or rather, still a child far away from any job prospects to worry about the immediate impact a recession would have on me. 

Now, experiencing one that is far worse than the one we experienced in 2008, there are a few surprises about a recession that I am encountering on a daily basis.

1. Lay offs and salary cuts are normal. It's not unusual for someone to say they got laid off or got a cut in their salary without it sounding horrific, like it would sound to me a few months prior. 

2. The idea of you loosing your own job becomes a possibility. Although my job is relatively safe and stable, the uncertainty of how long the recession will last and the domino effects we will see in the long run leads to an unconscious mental preparation that "it could be me someday". 

3. The difference between essential and non-essential suddenly stands out so starkly. Seeing gyms and exercise studios closed, but grocery stores crowded as ever, gives me a reality check on what is essential to our survival and what isn't. For me, a gym or yoga studio is much more essential to keep my lifestyle, which no longer exists in the same way it used to. I would visit my yoga classes far more than the grocery store, but now, I see fitness institutes bleeding money as they are shut down due to lockdowns. 

4. From a business standpoint, it makes me think of "real pain" versus "nice to have". As much as entrepreneurship grows, and we see interesting types of fitness studios, dog cafes, entertainment centres grow and make money, they are still "nice to haves" which disappear overnight in situations such as these. Not just pandemics, because those don't happen often, but a financial recession, which do happen every few years lead to businesses that are built on real pains surviving much more than lifestyle businesses that we as humans can survive without. 

5. There are some businesses that "luck out" given the situation. Netflix and other online entertainment companies aren't necessarily essential. Neither are e-learning companies (yet), as much as I'd like them to be. However, this recession was triggered by a pandemic that necessitated the need for online entertainment and remote ways of learning, which is why some businesses which ordinarily wouldn't do so well in a recession, did well in this case. 

6. The world begins to feel like a more empathetic place, where people genuinely understand what the others are going through, atleast to an extent. Everytime I call another stranger for work as a sales person, I can feel the genuine concern and empathy no matter where they live or work. In a personal context, when someone tells me they are about to be retrenched or just got retrenched, I don't feel pity as much as I feel empathy. Some people even display an effort to be of help to people who are in worse off situations compared to themselves. I don't know if this would still be the case if it was a recession minus the pandemic, but atleast at the moment, that's what it feels like. 

7. As always, the poor are hit most, but in the worse possible currency. It isn't just that the poor loose the ability to afford shelter, food, clothing. But they also loose more lives, which is the worst possible currency to be dealing in. In the case of COVID, it's the close living quarters and lack of access to medical facilities which could make health a more immediate threat. Even it's looked at as a pure recession minus the pandemic, starvation, hunger, suicides become more prominent in the poorer sections of society. 

8. "Luck" feels so important, more than ever. I didn't deliberately choose to work in Singapore in the technology sector which is relatively safe compared to other industries such as events companies in Europe or the US. I was simply lucky to be here when this recession started.

These reflections make me wonder how people got through even worse periods in history such as wars, where a recession was just among a long list of worries, and the threat to human lives lasted longer than a few months. Such experiences have a way of stopping time and making you feel much older both at once. 

Social distancing can be surprisingly soothing

Lately, with more imported cases coming into Singapore, the government has been announcing stricter measures, including closing of bars, banning non-essential trips to mall, banning gathers of more than 10 people and a 1 metre distance with people in all public places.

While we can still go outside the house, this does lead to some unavoidable social distancing, given that there are more constraints on going out, such as limited choice of places to go to, and shrunk capacity of places that are still open because of the 1 metre distancing.

I find that I am actually not unhappy with the impact these new rules have on my life. Social distancing and having fewer places to go to on the weekend makes my life more peaceful in general.

Life in a city tends to be quite bustling. Even weekends, which are traditionally meant for rest, can end up being quite busy in a different way, with socialising and other fun activities that the city has to offer.

This weekend feels different. After even my gym shut down last week, I woke up yesterday and found myself not too concerned about what time it was. Generally, I'd go for a yoga class at my gym every Saturday morning. Yesterday, I woke up with no place I had to get to, and it was really nice to be able to decide what I wanted to in the moment, rather than being dictated by my pre-determined schedule.

It's not just that there are fewer places to go to, but there is also lesser pressure to go out and socialise. Work from home is highly acceptable, and saying no to social outings is considered responsible. In non COVID times, I certainly felt the pressure to go out and see people, at least twice every weekend, even if it meant compromising on rest.

It's not like I dislike seeing people. In fact, my mind really enjoys it and feels more stimulated when I hear different perspectives from friends who I don't see during the week. But my body often feels tired and in need of rest. Still, I choose to go out, because in my mind, it is important to stay social.

All these new COVID related measures have led to less socialising and a slower pace of life, which gives me more time and space to think, read, write. More so, I find myself picking up hobbies I never thought I would pursue, even though there was a always a small intention at the back of my mind to try them - such as painting, or binge reading fiction.

I wonder, if after this mass quarantine ends, it might be worth it to make an active effort to slow down and keep up the social distancing one day a week, just to retain the sense of peace one can get from staying home.

Watching an epidemic

With the new coronovirus all over China, and partly over Singapore, I feel like I have front row seats to watching an epidemic become a pandemic.

It's been interesting and scary at the same time to watch it unfold.

2 weeks ago on Jan 23, when the first case of coronovirus surfaced in Singapore, people were scared, but not as scared as they are now, since the person who had it was someone from China, therefore implying that it hadn't really spread too much in the local population. Masks and hand santisers were sold out within hours all the same, because a few people bought many boxes. The government had to put limits on the number of masks and sanitisers one person could purchase.

At the time, Singapore felt like a country trying to fight the virus together by taking precautions that prevented spread in it's local population. There was quite some anger and irritation towards Chinese tourists who were visiting Singapore.

Personally, I was scared because I had never experienced an epidemic. It's strange to try and avoid a virus - it's something you can't really see or know if it's around you. So it leads to a perpetual fear at the back of my mind whenever I am out in public. I also felt quite annoyed that there were Chinese tourists flying in knowing that they could be infecting their co-passengers and a population that hadn't yet been touched by the Wuhan virus. But I tried to be reasonable and remind myself that those Chinese tourists aren't to blame for a virus outbreak.

A few days ago on 4 Feb, we saw some Singaporeans with no travel history to China or known contact with someone from China contract the virus. That's when people started to really panic. That meant that the person next to us in the train could have it. That's when people went from being protective about the local population, to being protective towards smaller groups, like their own family and friends.

This Sunday morning (9 Feb), after 7 new locals were announced to have the virus, I saw people bringing bags and trolleys of groceries home, in case the time comes that everyone outside is infected and we have to stay home, similar to what the Chinese are experiencing now. I hear that people were at grocery stores hoarding canned food and toilet paper as early as 7 AM. I usually order Amazon Prime, and delivery slots have been fewer lately since many folks seem to be using online delivery.

Grocery hoarding
Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/5-million-masks-snapped-up-in-hours-public-urged-against-hoarding-amid-global

Having said that, the Singapore government knows how to handle these things - they went through SARS in 2003 and have clearly prepared for another epidemic since then. The airport had thermal screenings for passengers in flights from China a few hours after the first case. All the people coming from China were asked to self quarantine for two weeks, which is the incubation period of the virus. Anyone who didn't comply risked legal implications. A few days later, they stopped all flights from Wuhan, and a few days after that, they stopped all flights from China. Now, everyone coming in from any part of the world through any mode of transport is going through thermal screenings at the ports. Many office buildings have thermal screenings as well to make sure no one with a fever walks in.

What's most interesting to me is the contact tracing - apparently, that is one of the best ways to prevent an epidemic from getting worse. Once Ministry of Health identifies someone who is infected, they contact everyone that person has been in touch with so that they can prevent those people from potentially infecting others. One of the challenges of the coronavirus is that it spreads even before symptoms show. So anyone could have it and be passing it on, but it's possible they aren't showing any symptoms yet.

One of the side effects that comes with contact tracing though is fake calls - yesterday, the Ministry of Health issued a notice saying that they don't ever ask for financial details over the phone when doing contact tracing. It seems like there may be some people out there taking advantage of the fear and trying to get financial details out of people under the pretence of being the Ministry of Health doing contact tracing.

Coughing in the office is a no no. People who are mildly sick, even if it's a clear case of a common cold, aren't coming to office. When someone coughs or sneezes in the train, people step away from them without any shame.

On any other day, I would say the step away when someone sneezes type of behaviour is very unkind. But I think this type of fear in Singapore actually helps people stay a little bit safer. It's culturally inappropriate to sneeze or cough in public in times like this, so the ones who are even mildly unwell don't dare show up to work.

Yesterday, the Prime Minister's office released a video in which PM Lee assured everyone that we had enough food and toilet paper - so no need to hoard. He also said that if this gets worse, hospitals would prioritise those with health complications, since we may not have enough beds in hospitals for everyone infected. I hope it doesn't get to that stage, but I do expect it to get worse for the next few days atleast. He also encouraged the population to not blame or discriminate against the Chinese.

While I continue to go to work and go out for groceries or to gym classes, I am avoiding making social plans at coffee shops or restaurants to whatever extent I can.